Russian oil shipments surge to China as tariffs slow flows to India

By Admin

03 Sep, 2025

Russia’s crude oil exports are witnessing a dramatic shift in trade flows, as shipments to China surge while deliveries to India falter under the weight of new tariffs imposed by the United States.

Tariffs Hit Indian Oil Imports

US President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50% as punishment for New Delhi’s persistent purchase of Russian oil has begun to choke crude shipments to the South Asian nation. Despite the Indian government’s defiance, the impact is evident: crude deliveries to India fell below 1.3 million barrels a day in the four weeks to August 31, down by nearly one-third from the March peak. Even if undelivered cargoes eventually land in India, flows remain down by about 550,000 barrels a day, or 28%.

China Steps In

While India’s imports decline, China has absorbed the shortfall. Russian crude shipments to Beijing climbed to a five-month high of 1.28 million barrels a day, making it the largest gainer from India’s reduced intake. This shift highlights how global energy trade is rapidly realigning under the influence of geopolitical pressure.

Overall Export Rebound

Russia’s overall seaborne crude shipments have rebounded strongly. Weekly exports jumped by 770,000 barrels a day to 3.49 million barrels a seven-week high. The four-week average stood at 3.15 million barrels a day to August 31, according to tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg.

The rebound was driven by resumed shipments from Sakhalin 2 after a four-week pause, partial recovery of flows to Ust-Luga following drone attack damage, and diversions to Primorsk and Novorossiysk. Primorsk, in particular, saw a record-equalling 11 tankers loaded last week.

War and Refinery Disruptions Add to Exports

Ukraine’s ongoing strikes on Russian refineries have paradoxically boosted crude availability for export. In August, at least eight refineries were attacked, forcing over 13% of Russia’s refining capacity offline. With more crude left unprocessed domestically, additional volumes were pushed into global markets.

Separately, a drone strike on the Unecha pumping station disrupted flows to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, as well as shipments to Ust-Luga. This forced Russia to reroute more crude to other ports, notably Primorsk and Novorossiysk.

Export Volumes and Value

In the week to August 31, 32 tankers loaded 24.45 million barrels of Russian crude up sharply from 19.07 million barrels the week before. This lifted the gross export value by about $310 million (28%), reaching $1.42 billion, even as average crude prices slipped slightly.

Urals crude from the Baltic averaged $54.36 a barrel, while Black Sea shipments fetched $54.91, both hitting their lowest since mid-June. By contrast, Russia’s Pacific ESPO grade strengthened, averaging $64.17 a barrel.

Asian Markets Lead the Way

Russian crude shipments to Asia rose to 2.7 million barrels a day in the 28 days to August 31, up from 2.62 million previously. Alongside China, other Asian buyers including tankers yet to declare destinations are increasingly dominating Russia’s export map.

Meanwhile, flows to Turkey slipped to about 340,000 barrels a day, while shipments to Syria remained steady at 70,000 barrels a day.

Outlook

With India facing tariff headwinds and China stepping in as a major buyer, Russia’s crude trade continues to adapt to global political and economic pressures. The combination of Western sanctions, tariff wars, and ongoing conflict-driven disruptions is reshaping Moscow’s energy flows ensuring that Asia remains the cornerstone of its oil export strategy.