Bihar Exit Polls 2025: What numbers say about Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, Prashant Kishor and others

By Admin

13 Nov, 2025

The Bihar Exit Polls 2025 have painted an intriguing picture of the state’s political landscape   one that suggests continuity, change, and emerging power dynamics. As the state eagerly awaits the official results on November 14, exit polls hint at a likely return of the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), despite Tejashwi Yadav’s growing popularity and the increasing influence of new entrants like Prashant Kishor.

NDA’s Edge: Nitish Kumar’s Alliance Poised for Victory

According to most exit polls, the NDA is expected to retain power, securing between 121–141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)   the opposition alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress   may win around 98–118 seats. Axis My India’s survey points to a close contest in terms of vote share, projecting 43% for NDA and 41% for MGB.

Interestingly, Today’s Chanakya forecasts a landslide victory for NDA with nearly 160 seats, signaling strong support across most regions except Seemanchal, a Muslim-dominated area. This result, if proven true, will mark yet another win for Nitish Kumar, defying two decades of anti-incumbency sentiment.

What Keeps Nitish Kumar Ahead?

Despite health concerns and a long tenure, Nitish Kumar continues to be Bihar’s most durable political brand. His governance model, especially the women-centric welfare and cash transfer schemes, has maintained his stronghold among female voters.

The NDA’s regional dominance in Champaran, Kosi, and Bhojpur reinforces Nitish’s resilience. However, an interesting twist lies in the Chief Minister preference polls   where Tejashwi Yadav leads with 34%, compared to Nitish’s 22%. This signals a gradual shift in public sentiment, even if the NDA wins.

There’s also quiet speculation that a post-poll power equation could emerge within the NDA, with the BJP eyeing the Chief Minister’s chair for the first time in Bihar’s history.

Tejashwi Yadav: The Rising Star of the Opposition

Tejashwi Yadav, the young RJD leader, continues to consolidate his base as the most popular opposition figure in Bihar. Though his alliance might fall short in seat count, his personal appeal remains unmatched among the youth and unemployed voters.

Exit polls suggest the RJD could still emerge as the single largest party, reflecting its strong grassroots network. However, Tejashwi struggled to completely counter the persistent “jungle raj” narrative tied to the RJD’s past rule under Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi.

Still, his leadership brand has clearly matured   and even in defeat, the exit polls give Tejashwi the narrative edge to position himself as Bihar’s future face.

Brand Modi and NDA’s Consolidation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign push played a significant role in boosting the NDA’s fortunes. The synergy between Modi’s charisma and Nitish’s local credibility helped the alliance overcome fatigue and anti-incumbency.

A victory in Bihar would strengthen the NDA’s dominance across northern India, giving it control over nine states and Union Territories. Moreover, BJP’s growing organizational strength may set the stage for the party to demand its own Chief Minister in Bihar, marking a historic shift in state politics.

The INDIA Bloc and Rahul Gandhi’s Struggles

The INDIA bloc, comprising the RJD and Congress, faces another electoral challenge. The Congress contested 61 seats but failed to make a major impact, continuing its losing streak since 2024.

Rahul Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra” and campaign on electoral roll discrepancies failed to connect with Bihar’s electorate. Exit polls suggest his presence did not significantly influence outcomes   underlining a growing disconnect between Congress’s messaging and regional voter priorities.

Prashant Kishor: The Outsider Who Couldn’t Break Through

Political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) was expected to be a potential game-changer. However, exit polls project a modest 0–5 seats for the new outfit. Despite extensive grassroots efforts and public meetings, Kishor’s message of “model change” failed to convert into votes.

His decision not to contest personally may have weakened his visibility. Yet, his presence in the political arena has set the tone for Bihar’s long-term shift toward issue-based politics, beyond traditional caste and alliance equations.

Final Takeaway

The Bihar Exit Polls 2025 indicate that the NDA may hold onto power, but the political winds are subtly changing. Nitish Kumar’s legacy continues, Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity is on the rise, and Prashant Kishor’s experiment marks the beginning of new political aspirations.

As Bihar awaits the final verdict on November 14, the numbers suggest more than just a win or loss   they reflect a state in political transition, balancing loyalty, legacy, and a thirst for change.