Bihar Elections 2025: What does record Phase 1 voter turnout mean an advantage for NDA or a boost for INDIA bloc?

By Admin

07 Nov, 2025

Bihar has witnessed a historic beginning to its 2025 Assembly elections, with the Election Commission reporting the highest voter turnout in the state’s electoral history. The first phase of polling, held on Thursday, November 6, saw a remarkable 64.66% turnout across 121 assembly constituencies, involving over 3.75 crore electors. This record participation marks a highly competitive and high-stakes battle that many analysts view as a litmus test for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Record Turnout Signals High Voter Engagement

According to the Election Commission, polling in Bihar concluded “in a festive mood” and remained peaceful throughout the day. The enthusiasm at the polling booths was evident, as voters turned out in unprecedented numbers. The second phase of polling for 122 seats is set for November 11, with results to be announced on November 14.

This phase marks the opening chapter of a political contest between the NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United), and the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc), led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress.

Parties Claim Victory in the High Turnout

Political reactions to the record turnout were swift and confident from all sides.
RJD leader and INDIA bloc’s chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav said, “I salute the people of Bihar for the bumper voting. I can now confidently say you have affirmed the victory of Mahagathbandhan.”

Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary of the BJP exuded similar optimism, stating, “We are going to win about 100 of the seats which went to polls today. The NDA’s overall tally will surpass the 2010 record of 206 seats.”

Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor, founder of Jan Suraaj, claimed the turnout reflected the people’s desire for change. “This is the highest ever turnout in Bihar since independence. It indicates that more than 60% of Bihar wants change,” he said, emphasizing the role of migrant voters and women as key influencers this time.

The Congress, too, expressed confidence, with spokesperson Pawan Khera asserting that the high turnout is a sign of “a clear majority” for the opposition alliance.

Interpreting the Turnout: Change or Continuity?

Political analysts are divided over what the historic turnout means for the major contenders. Traditionally, high voter participation is often associated with anti-incumbency and public eagerness for change. However, in Bihar’s case, the equation is more nuanced and depends on gender-based voting trends.

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari explained that higher women voter turnout tends to favor the NDA, referencing past elections where women’s participation correlated with NDA victories.

• In 2020, NDA won 27 out of 43 seats where women outnumbered men.
  
  

• In 2015, it secured 61 of 71 such seats.
  
  

• In 2010, it won 79 of 115 women-dominant constituencies.
  
  

Conversely, constituencies with higher male turnout have historically benefited the Mahagathbandhan, as seen when the NDA won only 26 of 76 seats where men outvoted women in 2020.

Thus, while high turnout indicates heightened political engagement, the gender ratio of voters could decide whether it boosts NDA’s continuity or INDIA bloc’s comeback.

Did the SIR Controversy Affect the Numbers?

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls by the Election Commission, which drew sharp criticism from opposition parties over alleged voter list “manipulation,” had raised concerns about reduced voter participation. However, the record turnout dispelled such fears.

Following the SIR exercise, the final electoral roll published on September 30, 2025, listed 7.42 crore voters, after 47 lakh deletions and 21.53 lakh new additions. Despite these revisions, voter enthusiasm surged, proving that the process did not discourage participation.

In comparison, Bihar’s previous turnouts were 57.29% in 2020, 56.91% in 2015, and 52.73% in 2010 showing a steady rise culminating in 2025’s record.

What Lies Ahead?

As Bihar moves toward the second phase of voting on November 11, the focus will remain on whether this unprecedented participation signals a wave of change or a renewed mandate for stability under Nitish Kumar. The final verdict on November 14 will not only shape Bihar’s future but could also offer a glimpse into the national mood ahead of the 2029 general elections.