Stocks to buy or sell: Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Sec suggests buying Astra Microwave Products shares on March 9

By Admin

09 Mar, 2026

Rising Crude Oil Prices Shake Global and Indian Markets

Escalating crude oil prices are creating significant pressure on the global economy and financial markets, including India’s stock market. The sharp surge in oil prices has raised concerns about rising inflation, weakening currency values, and increasing import costs for major oil-importing countries such as India.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, is particularly vulnerable to crude price spikes. Higher oil prices tend to increase the country’s import bill, affect fiscal balance, and weaken the Indian rupee. As a result, investors have begun shifting their focus toward safer investment options amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The surge in oil prices is largely linked to the intensifying conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which has raised fears of supply disruptions in the crucial Strait of Hormuz   one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. These geopolitical concerns have triggered a broad sell-off across global financial markets.

Global Markets React to Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices jumped by nearly 26% during early trading, reaching their highest level since July 2022. This sharp rise has rattled global markets and increased concerns about inflation worldwide.

Asian markets dropped significantly, falling around 4.8%, while futures tied to Wall Street and European markets also declined. The inflationary pressure caused by rising crude prices may force central banks to maintain higher interest rates or even increase them further.

At the same time, the demand for safe-haven assets has strengthened the US dollar, adding further pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee.

Indian Stock Market Performance

The Indian stock market closed sharply lower on Friday amid fears related to the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

• The Sensex fell 1,097 points (1.37%) to close at 78,918.90.
  
  

• The Nifty 50 dropped 315.45 points (1.27%) to settle at 24,450.45.
  
  

According to early indicators, markets were expected to open lower on Monday, March 9. GIFT Nifty futures were trading around 23,760, suggesting a 2.8% decline at the opening compared to Friday’s closing level.

Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, ICICI Securities

Dharmesh Shah, Vice President at ICICI Securities, noted that the Indian equity market has shifted from a Risk-On sentiment to a Risk-Off phase due to escalating geopolitical tensions.

During the week, the Nifty 50 declined 2.8%, closing at 24,450. An 18% rise in crude oil prices had a ripple effect on the Indian rupee, which in turn triggered a nearly 40% spike in India VIX, the market’s volatility indicator often referred to as the “fear gauge”.

While several sectors faced selling pressure, some industries remained relatively resilient.

Sectors showing strength

• Defence
  
  

• Pharmaceuticals
  
  

Sectors witnessing profit booking

• Financials
  
  

• Oil & Gas
  
  

• Auto
  
  

• Realty
  
  

Technical Outlook for Nifty 50

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 started the week with a gap-down opening. Although there was a short mid-week recovery attempt, escalating geopolitical tensions ultimately pushed the market lower.

The weekly chart formed a bearish candle with a lower high-low structure, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels combined with increased volatility.

Looking ahead, volatility is expected to remain elevated as geopolitical developments continue to dominate market sentiment.

Key Levels to Watch

• 24,300: Crucial support level for Nifty 50
  
  

• 25,200: Potential pullback target if support holds
  
  

• 23,900: Major structural support level if the correction deepens
  
  

The 20-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) placed near 24,300 remains an important technical level. Historically, buying near this long-term average has delivered around 20% returns in subsequent quarters.

Signs of a Possible Market Bottom

Historically, Indian equities have experienced three major corrective phases since 2014, each lasting about 20 months on average. The current correction has already extended to approximately 18 months, suggesting that the market may be approaching the final phase of consolidation.

Another important indicator is market breadth. The percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages in the Nifty 500 universe has dropped to about 30%. In the past, such contractions in market breadth have often preceded durable market bottoms.

Over the last four decades, there have been six major geopolitical escalations affecting financial markets. In most cases, once uncertainty began to fade, markets eventually formed major bottoms and delivered double-digit returns within the following three months.

Key Factors Investors Should Monitor

1. Brent Crude Oil

Sustained movement above the falling trend line would confirm a trend reversal in crude prices. If geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices may cool down; otherwise, prices could rise further toward $92 per barrel.

2. Inflation Data

Upcoming US and India inflation figures will be crucial for understanding interest rate trends and overall market direction.

Stock Recommendation: Astra Microwave Products

Despite market volatility, Dharmesh Shah has recommended buying shares of Astra Microwave Products Ltd, a company operating in the defence and aerospace electronics sector.

Trade Setup

• Buy Range: ₹1,005 – ₹1,035
  
  

• Target Price: ₹1,145
  
  

• Stop Loss: ₹944
  
  

The defence sector has shown resilience during the current market turbulence, making Astra Microwave Products an attractive opportunity for investors looking for medium-term growth potential.

Conclusion

Rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have created significant uncertainty in global and Indian financial markets. Increased volatility, inflation fears, and currency pressure have pushed investors toward safer assets.

However, market corrections often create opportunities for long-term investors. According to Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities, selective stock picking   such as Astra Microwave Products   may offer attractive returns even during volatile market phases.

Disclaimer:
The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company as of 06/03/2026, nor do they have any financial interest or material conflict of interest.

The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies and not Mint. Investors are strongly advised to consult certified financial experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual financial situations may vary.