Global Container Shipping Volume to Fall 1%: Drewry Warns of Trade War Fallout

By Admin

25 Apr, 2025

The global container shipping industry is bracing for turbulence as maritime consultancy Drewry forecasts a 1% drop in global container port volume this year. This decline, while seemingly modest, marks only the third time global container shipping demand has contracted since Drewry began tracking such data in 1979. Previous downturns occurred during the 2009 global financial crisis (-8.4%) and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (-0.9%).

US Trade Policy Disrupts Global Shipping Patterns

At the center of this slowdown is the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy, including blanket tariffs of 10% on goods from most countries and a staggering 145% import duty on products from China. These tariffs, designed to protect U.S. industries, have triggered retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners, igniting a full-blown trade conflict.

Drewry directly attributes the anticipated 1% fall in container volume to these U.S. trade actions. The consultancy warns that if two-thirds of the current tariffs remain, U.S. imports from China could plunge by as much as 40%. China is a key supplier of U.S. consumer goods, industrial equipment, and furniture—categories that now face steep barriers.

Shifts in Supply Chains and Regional Trade Flows

Amid the upheaval, companies are reevaluating their supply chains. Production is increasingly shifting from China to countries with more favorable tariff conditions. Drewry estimates that U.S. imports from other countries could grow by up to 15%, partially offsetting losses from reduced Chinese imports.

RC Willey Home Furnishings, a Berkshire Hathaway-owned retailer, illustrates the impact of these changes. The company halted shipments from Chinese factories after tariffs surged, even for goods ready to be loaded. Instead, they restarted imports from Vietnam, a country previously hit with 46% tariffs but temporarily reprieved with a 10% rate for 90 days.

Retailers and Ports Feel the Pressure

The National Retail Federation (NRF), which represents giants like Walmart and Target, recently predicted a 20% year-over-year drop in U.S. containerized imports in the latter half of 2025. Many of these goods arrive at the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s busiest container port. Its executive director has warned that falling import volumes could begin as early as May.

German shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd reported that 30% of its U.S.-bound shipments from China have been canceled due to fears over the deepening trade dispute. This not only disrupts global logistics but also injects widespread uncertainty across supply chains and consumer markets.

Broader Economic Risks Loom

Beyond logistics, the impact of these trade tensions could ripple across the global economy. Jeff Child, president of RC Willey, noted that uncertainty is a major blow to consumer confidence—a critical driver of economic activity. Economists caution that Trump’s trade policies increase the risk of a U.S. recession, which could quickly spread worldwide.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) echoed this sentiment, projecting slower global economic output in the coming months as the effects of widespread tariffs take hold.

Conclusion

Drewry’s projection of a 1% drop in global container shipping volume serves as a stark reminder of how interconnected trade policies, consumer sentiment, and global economic health truly are. As the trade conflict continues, the shipping industry, along with retailers and manufacturers, must navigate an increasingly complex and uncertain landscape.