India’s Russian oil purchases drop 33% as US sanctions bite

By Admin

03 Dec, 2025

India’s crude oil imports from Russia saw a sharp decline in late November after stringent US sanctions targeting key Kremlin-linked energy exporters took effect on November 21. Although overall Russian oil arrivals for the month averaged 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) still accounting for over 35% of India’s crude mix the impact of the sanctions became evident as refiners began scaling back purchases to avoid compliance risks.

According to data from real-time analytics firm Kpler, November’s imports marked a five-month high, driven largely by a pre-sanctions buying surge. “Before November 21, imports were closer to 1.9–2.0 million bpd as buyers moved cargoes ahead of the deadline,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling, Kpler. “It looks like refiners stocked up on crude ahead of the sanctions, planning to process it once the rules were in force.”

But once the sanctions window closed, inflows dropped sharply. Post-November 21 shipments have been tracking around 1.27 million bpd a steep month-on-month decline of about 570,000 bpd. Based on current loadings, Kpler expects December arrivals to fall further to nearly 1.0 million bpd, possibly easing toward 800,000 bpd before stabilizing.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, had emerged as the biggest buyer of discounted Russian crude after the West shunned Moscow following the Ukraine invasion in 2022. Russian oil’s share in India’s import basket surged from less than 1% pre-war to almost 40% at its peak, as refiners capitalized on attractive pricing. Even in November, Russia remained India’s top supplier, accounting for more than one-third of all crude imports.

However, the landscape shifted sharply after the US imposed sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil, and their majority-owned subsidiaries. Crude linked to these firms is now treated as a “sanctioned molecule,” prompting several major Indian refiners including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd to halt their purchases temporarily.

An exception is Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy, whose reliance on Russian crude deepened after European sanctions effectively squeezed out its access to other supply routes. In November, Nayara imported around 400,000 bpd and operated its refinery at 380,000–400,000 bpd, slightly higher than in October. The company also maintained strong export flows to markets such as Brazil, Turkey, and Sudan, diverting nearly one-third of its clean petroleum product cargoes via ship-to-ship hubs like Fujairah and Sohar to keep destinations opaque.

In the midst of shifting trade dynamics, new suppliers have also emerged. Companies like Tatneft, RusExport, MorExport, and Alghaf Marine DMCC have stepped in, enabling Indian refiners to maintain access to discounted Russian grades through more indirect and compliant channels.

According to Ritolia, Indian refiners are already adapting to the changing environment. “We’re seeing a shift toward non-designated Russian entities, more use of opaque trading channels, and increased sourcing from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas,” he said. On Russia’s end, exporters are deploying adaptive tactics ship-to-ship transfers near Mumbai, mid-voyage diversions, and more complex routing to ensure barrels continue reaching India while widening discounts.

Despite the recent drop, analysts believe the decline in Russian oil imports will be temporary. Unless broader secondary sanctions are imposed, India is expected to continue buying Russian crude albeit through more indirect, shadowed, and logistically complex routes as it balances geopolitics with the economic advantage of discounted oil.