What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on February 16

By Admin

16 Feb, 2026

The Indian stock market is likely to begin Monday’s session on a cautious note, with benchmark indices indicating a weak opening amid mixed global cues and rising volatility.

Weak Start Indicated by Gift Nifty

The trends on Gift Nifty suggest a negative start for the domestic markets. Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,448 level, at a discount of nearly 71 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures. This signals early pressure on frontline indices.

On Friday, the market witnessed sharp selling. The Nifty 50 slipped below the crucial 25,500 mark, while the Sensex declined significantly.

The Sensex dropped 1,048.16 points, or 1.25%, to close at 82,626.76. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 fell 336.10 points, or 1.30%, ending at 25,471.10.

Let’s take a closer look at what analysts expect from the major indices today.

Sensex Prediction

The Sensex formed a reversal pattern near the 84,500 level and also created a bearish candle on the weekly chart   a largely negative technical signal.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said the intraday market texture remains weak. According to him:

• Fresh selling may emerge if the index falls below the 20-day SMA or 82,500.
  
  

• Below this level, the correction could extend to 82,200.
  
  

• Further downside may drag the index toward 81,700–81,500.
  
  

On the upside:

• 83,100 is seen as immediate resistance.
  
  

• A move above this could lead to a pullback toward the 50-day SMA at 83,700–84,000.
  
  

Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, added that immediate support lies in the 82,400–82,500 zone. A failure to hold this level could result in a test of 82,000. For any sentiment reversal, the index needs to sustain above the 83,000–83,200 resistance zone.

Nifty 50 Prediction

The Nifty 50 formed a large bearish candle and slipped below its 50-day DEMA. For the week, the index declined 0.87% and formed a bearish weekly candle, though price action remained within the previous week’s range, indicating consolidation amid stock-specific moves.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, highlighted that:

• A long negative candle with a minor upper shadow suggests a downside reversal.
  
  

• A ‘Bearish Island Reversal’ pattern was formed on the daily chart.
  
  

• The initial downside target of 25,500 was achieved on Friday.
  
  

He warned that a decisive slide below 25,450 could pull the Nifty toward 25,200 (200-day EMA) this week. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,600.

Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, noted that the crucial support at the 200-DMA near 25,300 may soon be tested.

Adding to concerns, India VIX surged 13% to around 13, reflecting rising volatility. Jain stated that as long as Nifty remains below 25,800, pullback rallies are likely to face selling pressure.

Mayank Jain of Share.Market placed immediate support in the 25,200–25,250 zone. A decisive break below this could open the doors for a slide toward the 25,000 structural support. On the upside, 25,550–25,600 remains a strong resistance zone, with heavy Call writing at the 25,600 strike adding to its importance.

Bank Nifty Prediction

The Bank Nifty declined 553.10 points, or 0.91%, to close at 60,186.65 on Friday. For the week, it rose 0.11% but formed a small bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating consolidation with a corrective bias.

Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that:

• The index traded within a 431-point range over the last four sessions.
  
  

• It has now broken below the lower end of the consolidation zone.
  
  

• RSI has started turning down from near 60, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
  
  

Immediate support lies in the 20-day EMA zone of 60,000–59,900. A sustained move below this may push the index toward 59,500 and then 59,000 in the short term.

On the upside, the 60,500–60,600 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance.

Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd., pointed out that Bank Nifty is still hovering near all-time highs and remains above its 21-day and 55-day EMAs   reflecting an underlying positive trend.

He highlighted:

• Crucial support at 59,900 (21-day EMA).
  
  

• A decisive break below could drag it to 59,400.
  
  

• A sustained breakout above 60,500 may trigger a fresh upmove toward 61,000.
  
  

He advised traders to adopt a cautious buy-on-dips approach.

Market Outlook for February 16

Overall, the market structure appears sideways-to-weak, with increased volatility and strong resistance levels overhead. A negative opening is likely, and traders should closely watch key support zones in Sensex (82,500), Nifty (25,450), and Bank Nifty (60,000).

If these levels break decisively, further downside may unfold. However, holding above support could lead to selective stock-specific opportunities.

Investors are advised to remain cautious, manage risk effectively, and consult certified financial experts before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations mentioned above are those of individual analysts and broking companies, not of the publisher. Investors should consult certified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.