HDFC Bank to report Q4 numbers today: Analysts expect modest 7% growth in profit, NII likely to post single-digit rise

By Admin

19 Apr, 2025

India’s largest private lender by market capitalisation, HDFC Bank, is set to announce its Q4FY25 financial results today, April 19. As per brokerage expectations and market analysts, the bank is likely to post modest single-digit growth in both profit and Net Interest Income (NII), with earnings being weighed down by subdued margins and slower loan growth.

What Analysts Predict

According to multiple brokerage firms, HDFC Bank’s profit for the March quarter is expected to rise between 3% and 7%, a reflection of the ongoing challenges in loan growth and net interest margins (NIMs). The topline is estimated to range between ₹16,918 crore and ₹17,650 crore. CNBC TV18’s poll estimates Q4 profit at ₹17,058.1 crore, while NII is projected to be around ₹30,769.3 crore.

NII and Margin Trends

Analysts from Nuvama expect the bank’s NII to grow by 2% QoQ and 7.5% YoY, with margins likely to decline by 3 basis points (bps) QoQ and 4 bps YoY. They also noted an expectation of higher trading gains during the quarter, while loan and deposit growth were projected at 1.2% and 4.2%, respectively.

Loan and Deposit Performance

In its pre-Q4 business update, HDFC Bank reported:

• Gross AUM up by 3.3% QoQ and 7.7% YoY
  
  

• Deposit growth remained strong at 5.9% QoQ and 14.1% YoY
  
  

• CASA deposits increased by 8.2% QoQ (3.9% YoY)
  
  

• Term deposits rose by 4.7% QoQ (20.3% YoY)
  
  

• CASA ratio improved by ~75bps QoQ to 34.8%
  
  

• The Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) dropped by ~180bps QoQ to 97%
  
  

Brokerage Sentiment and Key Highlights

• Nomura acknowledged the bank's strong deposit delivery in a tough environment, expecting this trend to eventually support accelerated loan growth as the LDR improves. They also noted that system liquidity turning surplus in late March could aid further deposit inflows.
  
  

• Kotak Institutional Equities viewed the Q4 numbers as a mixed bag, with better-than-expected loan growth (~5% YoY) but lagging the industry average. They expect NIM to remain flat and asset quality to be stable, highlighting improvements in the Credit-Deposit (CD) ratio, which now stands at ~97% (up 180bps QoQ).
  
  

• Sharekhan maintained that the asset quality remains stable, while NIMs are likely to stay flat QoQ, indicating a cautious but steady performance.
  
  

What’s Next?

The bank's senior management will address an earnings call at 6 PM IST today, where they will discuss the Q4 results and share insights on future strategies. As analysts await commentary on margin progression, growth trajectory, and impact of regulatory requirements like PSL (Priority Sector Lending) for FY2025, investor focus remains on the bank’s medium-term outlook and recovery in core performance metrics.

Stay tuned for more updates as HDFC Bank unveils its Q4FY25 numbers later today.